@InProceedings{BalanEbSkOmBaNa:2016:InFoSe,
author = "Balan, Nalan and Ebihara, Yusuke and Skoug, R. and Omura,
Yoshiharu and Batista, Inez Staciarini and Nakamura, Takuji",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Kyoto
University} and {Los Alamos National Laboratory} and {Kyoto
University} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}
and {National Institute of Polar Research}",
title = "Indices for forecasting severe space weather",
year = "2016",
organization = "Annual Meeting Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, 13. (AOGS)",
abstract = "Indices for Forecasting Severe Space Weather Nanan BALAN1#+,
Yusuke EBIHARA2, R. SKOUG3, Yoshiharu OMURA2, Inez BATISTA1,
Takuji NAKAMURA4 1 National Institute for Space Research, Brazil,
2 Kyoto University, Japan, 3 Los Alamos National Laboratory,
United States, 4 National Institute of Polar Research, Japan
#Corresponding author: balannanan@gmail.com +Presenter We suggest
indices for forecasting severe space weather (SvSW) at the Earth
that can damage technological systems such as electric power grids
for the first time using ACE and IMP satellite data and Dst index.
We study the characteristics of the CMEs that produced all 90
intense geomagnetic storms (DstMin < -100 nT) including 2 SvSW
events since 1998 and earlier SvSW events such as the Carrington
event of 1859, Quebec event of 1989 and an event in 1958. The CME
and IMF parameters corresponding to the main phase (MP) of the
geomagnetic storms are used to develop a forecast scheme. The
scheme is tested using hourly values of solar wind and IMF. The
results reveal that (1) all known electric power outages happened
during the SvSW events that produced extreme geomagnetic storms
having high mean Dst during MP (mean DstMP < -250 nT). (2) The
products (\ΔV x Bz), (V x Bz) and (P x Bz) show very large
negative values at the CME fronts (of velocity \ΔV) that
caused SvSW, with V, P and Bz being the solar wind velocity in km
s-1, dynamic pressure in nPa and north-south (northward positive)
component of IMF in nT. (3) The product (\ΔV x Bz) seems a
suitable index for forecasting SvSW.",
conference-location = "Beijing",
conference-year = "31 July - 05 Aug.",
language = "en",
targetfile = "balan_indices.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}